Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2022.v14i1.632Keywords:
Prospective scenarios, Private Banking, Offshore finance, Investor´s education, Financial regulationAbstract
Objective: This article aims to explore potential future scenarios for the offshore Private Banking industry serving Brazilian individuals, considering the increasing competition.
Methods: The research employs the Prospective Scenarios approach, including a Delphi panel with industry’s experts in two rounds of interviews.
Results: The results indicated a consensus among the participants regarding two driving forces for the offshore Private Banking Industry: Regulation and Educational Challenges. The work builds four prospective scenarios for 2040: The Sky is the limit; Swimming against the Tide; The Dark Ages; and Too Much Openness Misses the Optimal Point.
Conclusions: The research concludes that Private Banking firms should closely monitor the main regulations that can impact their business. In addition, offshore Private Banking firms should invest in educating potential investors in Brazil, especially the rising affluent segment and the millennials demographic group, leveraging all the technological resources at their disposal. Both scholars and practitioners might also replicate the methodology used of prospective scenarios using Delphi (Lima, 2014; Skulmoski, Hartman & Krahn, 2007) method to other sectors.
Downloads
References
Alvarez, J. F. M., Sheng, H. H., & Vaz, D. V. (2015). The Internationalization of Spanish-and Portuguese-Speaking Banks. Latin American Business Review, 16(3), 183-204. https://doi.org/10.1080/10978526.2015.1075199
Angel, J. J., Harris, L. E., & Spatt, C. S. (2011). Equity trading in the 21st century. The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 1(01), 1-53. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010139211000067
BCG (2019). Global Wealth 2019: Reigniting Radical Growth. A report by Boston Consulting Group, June 2019.
https://image-src.bcg.com/Images/BCG-Reigniting-Radical-Growth-June-2019_tcm9-222638.pdf
Central Bank of Brazil (2019a): Concentração, Concorrência e Inovação. Relatório de Economia Bancária 2018, cap. 6, p. 137-182. https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/relatorioeconomiabancaria/reb_2018.pdf
Central Bank of Brazil (2019b): International Investment position series, Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).
Cleary, K. (2000). Using the Delphi process to reach consensus. Eastern Washington University.
Cummins, R. A., & Gullone, E. (2000, March). Why we should not use 5-point Likert scales: The case for subjective quality of life measurement. In Proceedings, second international conference on quality of life in cities (Vol. 74, p. 93).
CVM (2003): Instrução CVM número 400, de 29 de dezembro de 2003. Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.
http://conteudo.cvm.gov.br/export/sites/cvm/legislacao/instrucoes/anexos/400/inst400consolid.pdf
CVM (2013): Instrução CVM número 539, de 13 de novembro de 2013. Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.
http://conteudo.cvm.gov.br/legislacao/instrucoes/inst539.html
Deloitte (2015). Wealth Management and Private Banking, Connecting with clients and reinventing the value proposition.
Deloitte (2018). The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018. The winding road to future value creation. Third edition.
De Paula, L. F. R. (2002). Expansion strategies of European banks to Brazil and their impacts on the Brazilian banking sector. Latin American Business Review, 3(4), 59-91. https://doi.org/10.1300/J140v03n04_04
Eichengreen, B., & Fishlow, A. (1998). Contending with capital flows: what is different about the 1990s?. Capital flows and financial crises, 23-68.
https://web.stanford.edu/~judy/ps241/ei_fi98.pdf
Ernst & Young (2018). The evolution of Robo-advisors and Advisor 2.0 model, the future of investment management and financial advisory.
Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (2005). A note on scenario planning. Harvard Business Review Cases.
https://store.hbr.org/product/note-on-scenario-planning/306003?sku=306003-PDF-ENG
Geleilate, J., & Forte, S. (2012). Motivações e estratégias de internacionalização dos três maiores bancos brasileiros frente à nova configuração econômica mundial. Revista de Gestão dos Países de Língua Portuguesa, 11(1), 02-12.
https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/3885/388539132002.pdf
Glenn, J. C.; Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures research Methodology, version 3.0. Millenium Project, Washington D.C.
Gonzalez-Carrasco, I., Colomo-Palacios, R., Lopez-Cuadrado, J. L., Garcı, Á., & Ruiz-Mezcua, B. (2012). PB-ADVISOR: A private banking multi-investment portfolio advisor. Information Sciences, 206, 63-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2012.04.008
Lee, D. K. C., Guo, L., & Wang, Y. (2018). Cryptocurrency: A New Investment Opportunity? Journal of Alternative Investments. 20, (3), 16-40. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School of Business. https://doi.org/10.3905/jai.2018.20.3.016
Lima, A. C. (2014). Uma análise do ambiente competitivo dos bancos comerciais no Brasil (Doctoral dissertation, Universidade de São Paulo). https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-26052014-175045/en.php
Maaz, R. F. (2018). A atividade de negociações algorítmicas de alta frequência no mercado brasileiro de dólar futuro (Doctoral dissertation). http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace;/bitstream/handle/10438/24594/Dissertation_20180821_RFM.pdf
Molina, V. L. B. (2013). Motivos determinantes para a internacionalização na indústria brasileira de private banking: estudo de caso do Banco Itaú Unibanco SA (Master dissertation). http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/handle/10438/10376/Tese_Vinicius%20Molina_20130110_VF_PUBLICACAO.pdf;jsessionid=934875F89866B0A7A4ABAABFA1DCD8EB?sequence=1
Potter, S. M. (2015). Executive Vice President of the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2015 FX Week Conference, New York City, 14 July 2015, pages 3-4.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2015/pot150714
Securities Act of 1933, Regulation D, Rule 501 (1933).
https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2020/33-10824.pdf.
Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. Currency. Pages, 3, 4 and 35.
Serena, J. M., & Moreno, R. (2016). Domestic financial markets and offshore bond financing. BIS Quarterly Review September. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1609g.htm
Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., & Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi method for graduate research. Journal of Information Technology Education: Research, 6(1), 1-21. https://www.learntechlib.org/p/111405/
Stulz, R. M. (1999). International portfolio flows and security markets.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.39.168&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Cichester: John Wiley & Sons. Loc 145, 874.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Daniel Pedrosa Sousa, Gilberto Sarfati
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors who publish in this journal agree to the following terms: the author(s) authorize(s) the publication of the text in the journal;
2. The author(s) ensure(s) that the contribution is original and unpublished and that it is not in the process of evaluation by another journal;
3. The journal is not responsible for the views, ideas and concepts presented in articles, and these are the sole responsibility of the author(s);
4. The publishers reserve the right to make textual adjustments and adapt texts to meet with publication standards.
5. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right to first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Atribuição NãoComercial 4.0 internacional, which allows the work to be shared with recognized authorship and initial publication in this journal.
6. Authors are allowed to assume additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in this journal (e.g. publish in institutional repository or as a book chapter), with recognition of authorship and initial publication in this journal.
7. Authors are allowed and are encouraged to publish and distribute their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on a personal web page) at any point before or during the editorial process, as this can generate positive effects, as well as increase the impact and citations of the published work (see the effect of Free Access) at http://opcit.eprints.org/oacitation-biblio.html
• 8. Authors are able to use ORCID is a system of identification for authors. An ORCID identifier is unique to an individual and acts as a persistent digital identifier to ensure that authors (particularly those with relatively common names) can be distinguished and their work properly attributed.