Dinâmica de Sistemas e Previsão: Uma Revisão da Literatura
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2017.v9i3.309Keywords:
dinâmica de sistemas, previsão, cenários, revisão da literaturaAbstract
Pouco se discute sobre a aplicação conjunta das ferramentas de dinâmica de sistemas e de prospecção. O presente artigo objetiva revisar a literatura no que tange à aplicação conjunta desses assuntos, através do uso de bibliometria e análise contextual. Foram selecionados 35 artigos da base Scopus, abrangendo o período de 1960 a 2014, de acordo com sua relevância e relação com o tema. Os resultados apontam que os principais journals que apresentam ambos os temas são “Technological Forecasting and Social Change” e o “Journal of the Operational Research Society”. A primeira publicação analisada data de 1976 e as publicações seguintes só vieram a partir de 1988. Daim et al. e Lyneis são os autores cujos artigos tiveram o maior número de citações. As principais metodologias utilizadas foram dinâmica de sistemas e estudo de caso. Em relação à análise contextual, identifica-se que muitos artigos utilizam modelagem e simulação para prospectar o futuro e construir cenários, mas poucos discutem se essa aplicação seria a mais indicada e adequada e como se deve utilizar as duas ferramentas em conjunto.
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