CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES

Authors

  • Renata Fernandes Galhanone FEA - USP
  • Geraldo Luciano Toledo FEA - USP
  • José Afonso Mazzon FEA - USP

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i2.77

Abstract

Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

2012-01-20

How to Cite

Galhanone, R. F., Toledo, G. L., & Mazzon, J. A. (2012). CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES. Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 3(2), 3–33. https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2011.v3i2.77

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2011): Future Studies Research Journal

Section

Artigos / Articles

License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

1. Authors who publish in this journal agree to the following terms: the author(s) authorize(s) the publication of the text in the journal;

2. The author(s) ensure(s) that the contribution is original and unpublished and that it is not in the process of evaluation by another journal;

3. The journal is not responsible for the views, ideas and concepts presented in articles, and these are the sole responsibility of the author(s);

4. The publishers reserve the right to make textual adjustments and adapt texts to meet with publication standards.

5. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right to first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Atribuição NãoComercial 4.0 internacional, which allows the work to be shared with recognized authorship and initial publication in this journal.

6. Authors are allowed to assume additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in this journal (e.g. publish in institutional repository or as a book chapter), with recognition of authorship and initial publication in this journal.

7. Authors are allowed and are encouraged to publish and distribute their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on a personal web page) at any point before or during the editorial process, as this can generate positive effects, as well as increase the impact and citations of the published work (see the effect of Free Access) at http://opcit.eprints.org/oacitation-biblio.html

• 8. Authors  are able to use ORCID is a system of identification for authors. An ORCID identifier is unique to an individual and acts as a persistent digital identifier to ensure that authors (particularly those with relatively common names) can be distinguished and their work properly attributed.